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Ceasefires in Ukraine's Donbas repeatedly fray because no side is fully invested in peace. Until the sides can agree on a long-term political solution, they should focus on protecting civilians through carefully targeted sectoral disengagements. If this facilitates peacemaking, so much the better.

In The News

2 Aug 2020
[The arrest of José Antonio Yépez] is basically a short-lived P.R. victory, but it doesn’t provide a solution. The big worry is that there is no backing in terms of a more cohesive security strategy. The New York Times

Falko Ernst

Senior Analyst, Mexico
29 Jul 2020
The violence [in Sudan] has triggered a wave of sit-ins across the region, demanding authorities protect civilians from the militias, who are scrambling to secure their gains now that Bashir has gone. The New York Times

Jonas Horner

Deputy Project Director, Horn of Africa & Senior Analyst, Sudan
29 Jul 2020
We should not expect spectacular reversals. Ndayishimiye is himself a product of the CNDD-FDD system and… must ensure the loyalty of the executives who were not necessarily in favour of his designation. The New Humanitarian

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Analyst, Democratic Republic of Congo and Burundi
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If the defector is in fact the cause for the Kaesong lockdown, then North Korea doesn’t need to deny infections anymore and can blame its epidemic on defectors and imported cases from South Korea. Time

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Senior Adviser, North East Asia & Nuclear Policy
27 Jul 2020
At some point there are things that require somebody to set a leadership agenda. [OSCE] can’t do all of that without somebody in charge. Financial Times

Olga Oliker

Program Director, Europe and Central Asia
25 Jul 2020
Prominent Zimbabwean journalist Chin'ono has been extremely active in exposing corruption, but with that exposure has come a very hard-hitting narrative about the failures of President Mnangagwa’s administration. Al Jazeera

Piers Pigou

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CrisisWatch

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, a tool designed to help decision-makers prevent deadly violence by keeping them up-to-date with developments in over 80 conflicts and crises, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace.

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Trends for Last Month June 2020

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Improved Situations

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Outlook for This Month July 2020

Conflict Risk Alerts

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Afghanistan

President's Take

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Contributor

Robert Malley
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Rob_Malley

In his introduction to this month’s edition of CrisisWatch, our President Robert Malley reflects on critical crossroads for protracted conflicts in Libya and Afghanistan, and a possible turning point in the Nile Waters dispute.

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Global

What’s Happened to the UN Secretary-General’s COVID-19 Ceasefire Call?
Speech

What’s Happened to the UN Secretary-General’s COVID-19 Ceasefire Call?

EU Watch List

Watch List 2020 – Spring Edition

Speech

Climate Change Is Shaping the Future of Conflict

Africa

Defuse tensions in key Somali region Defuse tensions in key Somali region
Op-Ed

Defuse tensions in key Somali region

Briefing

How to Shield Education from Al-Shabaab in Kenya’s North East

Report

République démocratique du Congo : en finir avec la violence cyclique en Ituri

Asia

China has big plans for Myanmar. But they could backfire for both sides.
Video

China has big plans for Myanmar. But they could backfire for both sides.

Commentary

Korean Tensions: An Unexpected Pause in an Uncertain Time

v2ray高速节点分享

Rebooting Myanmar’s Stalled Peace Process

Europe & Central Asia

Preventing a Bloody Harvest on the Armenia-Azerbaijan State Border
Report

Preventing a Bloody Harvest on the Armenia-Azerbaijan State Border

Video

Qaralar: the Fears of an Azerbaijani Village on the Border with Armenia

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Latin America & Caribbean

Bolivia Faces New Polls in Shadow of Fraud Row
Briefing

Bolivia Faces New Polls in Shadow of Fraud Row

Video

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Middle East & North Africa

Averting an Egyptian Military Intervention in Libya
Statement

Averting an Egyptian Military Intervention in Libya

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Algérie : vers le déconfinement du hirak ?

Commentary

U.S. Sanctions on Syria: What Comes Next?

United States

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To Calm Turmoil, U.S. Leaders Must Stop Courting Conflict

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Deportation and Disease: Central America’s COVID-19 Dilemmas

Briefing

The Urgent Need for a U.S.-Iran Hotline

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Multilateral Diplomacy

Speech / Global

What’s Happened to the UN Secretary-General’s COVID-19 Ceasefire Call?

This is an expanded and updated version of remarks originally given to a conference organised by Mitvim – the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies and the Leonard Davis Institute for International Relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem on 17 May 2020. A conference summary is available here.

EU Watch List

Watch List 2020

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Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2020

Also available in Français

From Early Warning to Early Action

Commentary / From Early Warning to Early Action

Crisis Crunching: What CrisisWatch Says about Today’s Conflicts – and Tomorrow’s

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Ceasefires in Ukraine's Donbas repeatedly fray because no side is fully invested in peace. Until the sides can agree on a long-term political solution, they should focus on protecting civilians through carefully targeted sectoral disengagements. If this facilitates peacemaking, so much the better.

Also available in Русский, Українська
Briefing / Latin America & Caribbean

Bolivia Faces New Polls in Shadow of Fraud Row

Controversy over the 2019 election and its violent aftermath continues to haunt Bolivian politics. As fresh polls approach, outside actors should supply technical advice and monitoring, as well as push rival parties to pledge to keep any disputes off the streets.

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Op-Ed / Africa

Defuse tensions in key Somali region

Originally published in Daily Nation

Statement / Middle East & North Africa

Averting an Egyptian Military Intervention in Libya

On 20 July, Egyptian legislators authorised sending combat troops to Libya, where Cairo’s ally Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar is on the defensive. Following Turkey’s intervention on the Tripoli government’s behalf, Egypt’s involvement could escalate the war dramatically. All parties should seek a compromise.

Also available in العربية
Report / Middle East & North Africa

Algérie : vers le déconfinement du hirak ?

Les retombées économiques et sociales de la crise de Covid-19 et les mesures de confinement risquent de multiplier les défis auxquels l’Algérie est confrontée. Les autorités devraient desserrer leur étau sur la contestation populaire et établir un dialogue économique avec le hirak.

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